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An Analysis of the Mongolian Economic Crisis!
代写论文库:英语论文    时间:2017-08-08 23:39    点击:
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An Analysis of the Mongolian Economic Crisis
Khaliunaa Tsegmed
Abstract
The mineral rich country’s prospects were so bright only few years ago, until the government went on an ill-advised spending spree. The country of three million people is so rich in copper, gold, coal, iron and other mineral resources that some dubbed it the Kuwait and Asia. Yet today Mongolia faces a real risk of financial crisis, now its debt has surged, currency has plummeted, and budget deficit has widened alarmingly. Mongolia’s economy is challenged by significant external imbalances because foreign direct investment has declined rapidly and some mineral exports remain weak.  
This paper analyzes main factors of country’s economic crisis, mainly focused on its monetary and financial policies.
Keywords: Mongolia, economic crisis, monetary and financial policies
1. Introduction
Mongolia is a landlocked country between Russia and China, both of which are economically and geographically large, powerful countries of the world. This geographic situation influences the country’s economy, including its foreign trade. Mongolia, Russia and China were under a communist regime and experienced reforms from a centrally planned economy to a market-oriented one. Mongolia moved to a multiparty political system in 1990 with equally rapid political, constitutional, and economic changes. The changes that came to Mongolia were more than just political. Mongolia was changing and many of the social and economic factors that contributed to the change were the foundations for the challenges Mongolia still faces today.
Mongolia enjoyed a seemingly strong economy. But the foundation of that economy was built on unstable sand. On a per capita basis in 1989 Mongolia was one of the largest recipients of foreign aid in the world. Between 1960 and 1990 an estimated 30 percent of Mongolia’s Gross National Product (GNP) was foreign economic assistance.
After the fall of the Soviet Union and Communism, external shocks in Mongolia were enormous. Increasing economic difficulties, shortages of consumer goods, cessation of foreign aids and overall confusion and panic among the population exerted considerable pressure on the government to undertake steps towards transition as soon as possible. Under the guidance of the World Bank, Mongolia followed the shock therapy. The main fundamentals of the transformation are liberalization, stabilization and privatization.
 
Mongolia’s economy was affected by three crises. The most difficult and long-term crisis was 1991-2000, in this term Mongolia experienced a surge in inflation. The next crisis was a case in 2008-2010, it continued almost 2 years. After this crisis, Mongolia had facing extremely favorable external economic environment, including global high mineral prices and strong demand from China. By 2014, the economy crashed just as quickly as it expanded. Given falling GDP, an increasing budget deficit, decreasing foreign reserves and other negative macroeconomic indicators, experts agree that Mongolia is in economic recession.
 
2. Recession of once booming economy
 
Mongolia was hit hard by the international economic and financial crisis: To the country fell 26 percent in 2009, which compares poorly to the East Asia regional average of 16 percent. In early 2009, the IMF reached $236 million Stand-by Arrangement with Mongolia and it emerged from the crisis with a stronger banking sector and better fiscal management.
 Mongolia, classified as an upper-middle-income economy by the World Bank, has enjoyed high growth rates over the past several years due to its wealth of natural resources. Rising mining prices in the 2011s, this high rate of growth reflected growth in mining sector investment globally. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows began to increase dramatically as the Government of Mongolia opened its mining sector to foreign investment. Rents from minerals, coal, oil and forestry accounted for over a quarter of GDP in 2013. Mongolia is endowed with large reserves of a wide range of mineral resources and the development of these resources has become the main growth driver in the past decade.
In 2011, Mongolia was one of the fastest growing economies in the world, with an estimated real GDP growth rate of 17.29 percent and China as its biggest trading partner. 90 percent of Mongolian exports went to China in 2013.
Global commodity prices fell sharply in 2013 and 2014, however, initiating a sudden drop in mining sector investments globally, including in Mongolia. Soft global economic growth has hurt demand for some of the most closely-watched industrial metals like copper and iron, as well as oil. While China was growing faster than many countries, it has slowed drastically in recent years. That’s a critical factor of falling price of commodities, because China’s previously-insatiable demand for natural resources made it the world’s “swing consumer”.
Mongolia’s economy is very dependent on the mining sector, which accounts for about 50% of revenues and 90% of exports. The IMF notes that as a result of this dependence, the country is vulnerable to commodity shocks that lead to boom-bust cycle. Mongolia’s GDP growth rate was reaching an all time high of 17.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, and then global commodity prices have fallen down and together with the low demand of China, Mongolia’s GDP fell rapidly from second quarter of 2014. As a result, Mongolia’s growth slowed sharply to 2.2% in 2015 and -1.6% in 2016. The Mongolian economy advanced 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2017, compared to 3.1 percent expansion in the previous year.
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 1: Mongolia GDP Annual Growth Rate (2008-2017)
     
                  Source: National Statistics Office of Mongolia
As we can see above, from 2012 to 2013, the level of consumption in Mongolia has changed a lot. Here are a macroeconomic indicators.  
3. A weak and unstable macroeconomic environment
      Partially in response to limit the impact of the fall in mining investment on economic growth, Mongolia has adopted rather loose macroeconomic policies. According to the Export Diversification Index, Mongolia’s export basket is the least diverse among its comparators. Exports have steadily focused on mining since 2006, with textiles dropping from 60% of exports on 2001 to 5% of exports in 2012. The correlation between budget income and the price of copper is 0.71, and it is 0.46 for the price of coal. This lack of diversification has left Mongolia vulnerable to external shocks, such as shifts in global commodity prices, a sharp decrease in FDI or slowing growth in China.
3.1 Foreign Direct Investment
In October 2009, Mongolia passed long-awaited legislation on investment agreement with the Rio Tinto to develop the Oyu Tolgoi mine, among the world’s largest untapped copper-gold deposits. There was also strong interest in the equally massive Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit in that region, along with other coal, iron and copper deposits.
 
FDI inflows quickly recovered in 2010 with a phenomenal growth of more than 170 percent, compared to 24 percent in East Asia, and reached the record level of $4.7 billion in 2011.  Then, between 2010 and 2013, an additional US$6.2 billion was invested in the development of the Oyu Tolgoi.  This, combined with the impact of other projects, led to an annual increase of 400% in mining investment, raising the level of investment to over US$4 billion in both 2011 and 2012. Mining and livestock-origin raw materials and textile products account for most of Mongolia’s exports. In 2011, the percentage share of those products accounted for 95% of the country’s total exports. Therefore the Mongolian economy has remained vulnerable and dependent on the international market prices of its major export commodities.
Unfortunately, the Mongolian economy has experienced several shocks simultaneously within the past few years. Global copper prices declined by 41% and coal prices also fell by around 40% since 2011, as demand from China slowed. Amidst political debates about whether Mongolia was receiving a fair share of mining royalties, the Parliament passed the Strategic Entities Foreign Investment Law in 2012, which restricted foreign ownership of assets in sectors deemed essential to national security, including natural resource extraction. This precipitated a drop in FDI of 44% in 2013, which had been the primary source of financing for Mongolia’s current account deficit. Although the law was repealed the next year and a new Investment Law passed, the Government became embroiled in a two-year dispute with the foreign sponsor of Oyu Tolgoi, the largest copper and gold mine in Mongolia.
Global commodity prices fell sharply in 2013 and 2014, according to the World Bank total foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mongolia was still above pre-boom levels, forecast to be US$882 million in 2014, but fell further.
Figure 2: Foreign Direct Investment, net inflows (BoP, billion USD)
       
          
       Source: The World Bank Data
 
In recent years, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) coming into Mongolia declined by 95 percent from its 2011 peak of USD 4.7 billion to USD 178.1 million in April 2017. Declining global prices for copper and coal, two commodity mainstays of the Mongolian economy, explain some of the investment nosedive, but Government of Mongolia (GOM) executive, legislative, and judicial missteps also discouraged foreign investment. This was to a large extent related to a deterioration of the relations between mining companies and the government. A tax dispute between Rio Tinto and the government has made it unsure whether a planned further expansion of Mongolia’s large Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine will start anytime soon. The uncertain regulatory environment has also in general acted as a break on mining investment.  
Fluctuating government revenues and economic growth rates harm investor and consumer confidence and create problems with developing a sustainable budget strategy. Senior GOM leader recently have pledged to correct the FDI-related mistakes of past GOMs and the incumbent GOM has achieved a significant measure of remediation by adopting FDI-friendlier legislation, confirming respect for the 2009 investment agreement that established the Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold mega-mine project, decriminalizing some business tax disputes and consequently reducing the use of prosecutorial “exit bans” against foreign business executives.
3.2 Fiscal Policy
The reduction in investment is weighing on the economy.  This has been partially offset by increased production in the mining sector, a consequence of a decade of continued investment and, most importantly, the start of production at the Oyu Tolgoi mine and the Government’s expansionary fiscal policy.  The economy has grown, and so has government revenue and expenditure.   
The reduction in investment and related economic activity is translating into lower employment growth, lower incomes, lower profits, lower government revenues and ultimately either less, or a lower quality of public services like health, education and public infrastructure.  The Mongolian Government has continued to increase expenditure, running budget deficits, with public debt increasing further.  Its tool of preference was the expansion of domestic investment in the construction sector, for example through the building of apartments in Ulaanbaatar and cash hand-outs to households.  This expenditure was financed through the use of commercial bonds.  This source of financing comes without the conditions of concessional loans, providing flexibility in how the money may be used.  
Figure 7: Government Revenue, Expenditure, and Balance, at the end of the year, million MNT
 
Source: National Statistics Office of Mongolia
The Mongolian state of dual has approved the budget for 2017. The budget forecasts fiscal revenue, fiscal expenditure and fiscal deficits of 23.3 per cent, 32.3 per cent and 9.1 per cent of GDP in 2017.The Mongolian government hopes to boost growth to 3 per cent in 2017 by pushing for big mining projects. To create a stable tax environment, the government says it will not raise taxes. At the same time, the government will improve infrastructure in the mining sector and increase revenue through development and investment in large projects. In 2017, government spending (including wages and other expenses) will fall by 1%; Funding for health, sports, art, culture, and spending on welfare and education programs did not fall significantly.
           Figure 7: Government Budget, percent of GDP (2008-2016)
                   
                   Source: National Statistics Office of Mongolia
In 2013, Mongolia's regular budget revenue totaled 58,79bn, and the regular budget expenditure totaled 45,593 billion tugrik, with a recurring budget surplus of 13,19.7 billion tugrik. In 2013, Mongolian tax revenue increased by 878 billion tugrik, up by 21.0%. Non-tax revenue increased by 173 billion tugrik, up 26.7 percent year on year.
In 2014, the Mongolian government debt as a share of GDP has more than 50%, after several years of rising, and Mongolia finance minister at the time of this year on August 10, but also said that this year the government debt to GDP ratio will reach 78%, and the budget goal accounted for only 55% of GDP.
The approved 2016 budget was for -3.4% GDP, but in a speech addressed to the nation on August 9, 2016, the minister of finance indicated that the deficit could be as high as -21% GDP due to one-off expenditures; this has since been revised in a supplementary budget to -18%. Mongolia approved a Fiscal Stability Law (FSL) in 2012, placing a fiscal deficit limit of 2% starting in 2013, but its fiscal deficit averaged 9% in the period 2012–2015. In addition, off-budget items are not part of this FSL, and large expenditures have been incurred by the Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM), a state-owned enterprise development bank established in 2011. While it is a for-profit enterprise, the projects the DBM undertakes require parliament and government approval, and bonds issued by the DBM have been generally guaranteed by the government. As such, DBM’s expenditures are effectively off-balance sheet transactions from the government, and the IMF recommends including the DBM’s expenditures as part of the fiscal deficit. As part of the FSL, Mongolia also had a debt ceiling totaling 50% of GDP in 2013 and 40% of GDP in 2014, but it missed these targets, and the FSL was amended, raising the ceiling to 58.3% GDP in 2015 while extending the target date to reach 40% debt-to-GDP to 2018.
Additional concerns about the macro risks relate to the external debt position of Mongolia. During the boom years, Mongolia’s government implemented a pro cyclical fiscal policy and borrowed substantial sums from international markets, including debut issues of sovereign bonds US$ denominated in US dollars and Japanese yen. When the economy began slowing in 2012, this additional spending initially acted as a stimulus and kept domestic demand high. However, it also created bubbles in the real estate and construction sectors, while government revenue began to taper. The economic slowdown has created a large budget deficit with debt repayments looming in 2017.
In the first 4 months of 2016, Mongolia had a net borrowing of US$591.2 million from the other countries, whereas this year the amount totaled to US$75.2 million. As for the first 4 months of 2017, overall balance of payments deficit was US$95.8 million.
There is no doubt that the 2005 debt relief gave Mongolians a much awaited hope for catching up with other fast-moving developing nations and presented an opportunity for a fresh start in the social system of the market economy.  Unfortunately, as current economic analysis shows, Mongolians wasted an opportunity. Since 2005 Mongolia’s total foreign debt grew quickly to US$24.95 billion now.
Figure 3: Gross External Debt Position by Sector Gross External Debt Position by Sector
   
    Source: Bank of Mongolia
The government manages public debt through a combination of two laws: the “Fiscal Stability Law” adopted in 2010 and renewed in 2015 (State Great Khural, 2010) and the “Debt Management Law” adopted in February 2015 (State Great Khural, 2015). Laws are made to be abided by and serve the purpose of limiting unlimited human desires and needs, and are not supposed to be tailored to the desires of the authorities. But a newly passed bill, the “Debt Management Law”, altered the previous law, making additional room for the government to contract more debt.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Mongolia’s total public debt was 76.5% of GDP in 2014, and external debt totaled 54.9% of GDP. Although the government has discussed structural measures and policy adjustment, it has yet to improve the situation.
Mongolia’s trade account is one of the country’s weaknesses. The trade balance usually shows a large deficit and is structurally weak, as Mongolia exports mainly commodities while having to import nearly all consumer goods and fuel. In addition, the trade balance is weakened by the substantial imports of capital goods related to the development of the mining sector. Furthermore, the services and income accounts are in deficit due to the involvement of foreign companies in the country’s mining sector.
In the face of the crisis, boosting the economy is actually more needed to boost incomes and boost domestic demand, but the economic crisis has been further aggravated by the fact that Mongolia has no choice but to cut its income. In the first half of this year, more than 60,000 registered businesses in Mongolia have closed or stopped production. As early as 2011, Mongolia's economy grew by 17.3 percent, the highest in the world. Mongolia's GDP grew at a peak of almost 18 per cent in 2012, but growth has slowed since then and has grown less than 5 per cent since 2015 and continued to slide. Why did Mongolia's economy fall from the world's fastest growth in four or five years to the government? With the advent of the global economic growth era since the new century, the resource-rich and privatized Mongolia seized the opportunity and began to realize its economic take-off. Although Mongolia is a small country, it is a real resource. In recent years, the price of mineral resources has been falling, and the global economy is slowing. Mongolia's foreign trade has been shrinking.
 In 2013, Mongolia conducted bilateral trade with 135 countries and regions in the world, with total foreign trade amounting to us $106.27.4 billion, down by us $495.7 million compared with the previous year, falling by 4.5%. Among them, total exports totaled $42.727 billion, a decrease of $112 million from the previous year and a 2.6% decline. Imports totaled us $63.547 billion, a decrease of us $383.7 million, down 5.7 per cent. The import and export deficit was $20,82bn, down $271.7 million from a year earlier, down 11.5%. Among them, Mongolian export products continue to be concentrated in mineral products, textiles, gemstones and semi-precious stones, precious metals, ornaments, COINS, raw skin and cooked leather, animal hair and products. The above products accounted for 96.5 percent of total exports.
 In 2015, Mongolia's total trade with the world's 147 countries and regions totaled $8.467 billion, down 23.1% year on year. China's trade with China was us $5.3 billion, 22.5 per cent less than the same period last year, accounting for 62.6 per cent of its total foreign trade.
Table 1: Foreign Trade Performance (million USD)
Category Yearly
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Turnover 11316.8 11123.0 10627.4 11011 8467 8274
Exports 4817.5 4384.7 4272 5774 4669 4916
Imports 6499.3 6738.4 6354 5237 3798 3358
Balance 1681.8 2353.7 2082 538 872 1558
Source: Bank of Mongolia
Mongolia’s current account deficit has been fairly high historically, substantial remittances from Mongolians living and working abroad are insufficient to keep the current account in the black and the current account generally shows a wide deficit, at more than -25% GDP in the period 2011–2013, although it has since improved considerably to an expected deficit of -11.1% in 2016. One factor contributing to the large current account deficit is the economy’s small size and the large investment associated with its mining projects. With the decrease in FDI and lower export revenue, the current account has been increasingly financed by currency reserves.
Figure 4: Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
 
 Source: Bank of Mongolia
According to the international monetary fund, the global economy remains weak and the outlook remains bleak. Influenced by economic cycles and economic structural factors, growth in China and emerging markets is falling from its peak, but still higher than in the developed world. Mid have reason to believe that China's economic growth will slow, if China's GDP growth rate is lower than the government forecast 7%, China's government is likely to take a series of powerful stimulus to revive the economy, but there is no action. This suggests that the question of Mongolia should also be taken into account for these advantages and disadvantages. The world economy has entered a new transition period. The developed countries have gradually recovered, and the emerging market economies, represented by China, have slowed down. Mongolia the fiscal deficit, high inflation rate of the larger countries respond to the situation should take prudent policy, credible monetary policy framework, especially considering the Mongolia the forward rate growth could pose a potential impact on the United States. The normalization of interest rates in developed countries could result in some repatriation. When investors divestment, Mongolia's fiscally disadvantaged countries may face more serious inflation risks.
Figure 8: Mongolia Fiscal Balance (percent of GDP)
                      
                     Source: National Statistics Office of Mongolia
Because of the country's economic situation is changing, the budget can't be achieved total revenue then arrange payments. In theory, countries may appear to revenues, the financial revenue and expenditure balance is equal, greater than the three conditions. In the practical operation of the economy, balance of payments completely equal situation is almost non-existent. Here, we can start from several ways, to understand the financial revenue and expenditure balance problems.
First of all, from the charge is greater than the fiscal revenue is greater than, can't think of economic and social development in general positive or negative, the key depends on how much savings. If there is excessive savings, means that the fiscal funds are not sufficient to achieve, for the national economy and social development will produce adverse effect. If every fiscal implementation "income is more than spending, a slight savings", because of the previous year's savings are not included in the financial revenue of that year, so the surplus years accumulated will naturally form a large amount of savings, it means that the use of fiscal funds are not sufficient, also be unfavorable to the national economy development. The requirements of China's fiscal balance is located in the "savings" slightly, from a long term to consider, is objective existence in the process of economic operation with the actual situation of fiscal champ. Visible, financial operation should be in a relatively long period of time after the break even the most ideal results.
Second, from a more than watching. Since financial operation is the best state to pursue this ends meet the ideal results, so a fiscal spending more than income, namely the fiscal deficit, means that fiscal spending part rely on borrowing to maintain, whether this situation will lead to social total supply and total demand imbalance caused inflation? This needs contact deficit was high and low, the economic development situation and the country in order to solve the deficit measures taken by the factors such as comprehensive usage. As we know, in the financial revenue and expenditure in successive years is slightly savings against economic development, and balance of payments is absolutely equal condition is almost non-existent. Visible, fiscal deficit is favorable to slightly necessary supplement and correction.
Finally, is economic policy. Country implements proactive fiscal policy is to specific policy in certain conditions. For example, our country is by issuing Treasury bonds to solve the problem of financial source, rather than by issuing notes. Second, from a seller's market to a buyer's market in our country, moderately expand the budget deficit, is within the scope of the national economy can withstand.
3.3 Monetary Policy
Monetary policy also loosened in recent years. The government relied on the Bank of Mongolia in funding the growing budget deficit. The amount of money and loans: by the end of December 2013, the total amount of monetary-currency (M2) totaled 94,51bn, with an increase of 3,42.3 billion tugrik from the previous month, up by 3.8%. The year-on-year increase of 18,33.7 billion tugrik, up 24.1%. The Bank of Mongolia has provided over MNT 900 billion in 2016 to the government, most of which has injected to commercial banks of the new Good Programs and Housing Mortgage Program. As a result, the monetary base and M2 increased in 2016. Bank loan growth however remained subdued at 0.8 percent (yoy) in 2016, reflecting weak economic conditions.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 5: Money Supply M2, billion MNT
                        
                         Source: Bank of Mongolia
The Mongolian currency, the tugrik, has been at its lowest level against the dollar in 19 consecutive sessions, the longest since 1993. Since the start of the 2013, it has plunged more than 11 per cent. In August alone, the devaluation was more than 7 percent. In the past four or five years, Mongolia's currency has depreciated by almost 60 percent.
After gradual appreciation in 2016 with the influx of a $750 million sovereign borrowing, the togrog depreciated by 24.8% y-o-y, reaching the historically highest point against USD, at 2490.34. What caused a rise in the US dollar?
Mongolian balance of payments shows that shortage of US dollar deepens in Mongolian market. For instance, as of the first nine months of 2016, Mongolian balance of payments totaled to US$232 million deficit, meaning that total of US$231 million went from the Mongolian market.
The combined effects of FDI decline, decreased revenue from mineral resources, and weakening balance of payment have been put downside pressure on MNT throughout the year. Up to now, the volatility of exchange rate remains high. The sharp depreciation of the currency brings about capital flight, panic buying and foreign investment, which makes the already poor Mongolian economy worse.

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 6: MNT-USD Exchange Rate

                       
           Source: Bank of Mongolia
According to the World Bank, the trends for the year suggested that high domestic inflation has been mirrored in the weakening of the currency. Rising global risk aversion and declining commodity prices are additional factors, which are contributing to the depreciation as it has also occurred in other emerging mineral rich economies. The main factors of MNT depreciation in terms of economic fundamentals were substantial increase in current account deficits and significant reduction in net foreign exchange inflows.  Externally, China’ economic slow-down is also part of the causes to depreciate MNT significantly.       
4. Conclusion
The Mongolian economy has two recessions in the past years. The first was brought on by a commodity price, with China’s economic slowdown, and the second – which could probably have been avoided with sufficient counter-cyclical policies.
In general, most of the Mongolian government’s principal goals – economic, industrial and social – had been unfulfilled even before the current crisis. Government mismanagement rather than longer run trends in the world environment may be the major factors responsible for the country’s current plight.
The new restrictions on government spending have clearly affected all levels of state activity and will set limits on the aspirations of the new administration. Major projects in all areas have been slowed by varying degrees or placed on hold until conditions improve.  
Changes to fiscal policy and the budget strategy are needed to provide Mongolia with a sustainable budget.  Mongolia, as a resource dependent country, needs to recognize its dependency and manage its economy accordingly. Appropriate fiscal tools are needed, along with the skills to implement them. Most importantly, sustained political will is required.  
Mongolia should be friendlier to attract foreign direct investment of foreign investors, and by improving the legal system, the respect such as transparency, corporate governance, improve the investment environment. If so, Mongolia's economy will maintain a higher growth rate in the coming years.
References:
[1] MONGOL BANK. Statistics. [online]. Available at: https://www.mongolbank.mn/eng/liststatistic.aspx
[2] NATIONAL STATISTICS OFFICE OF MONGOLIA. Statistical Database. [online]. Available at: http://www.1212.mn/en/
[3] THE WORLD BANK. Datas. [online]. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/mongolia
[4] Baljmaa Zorig. “Economic Transformation in Mongolia”. Masaryk University. 2013
[5] H. Batsuuri. Original Sin: Is Mongolia Facing an External Debt Crisis?. The Northeast Asian Economic Review Vol. 3, No. 2, October 2015
[6] Tsolmon Altantulkhuur. Financial Development and Economic growth: The Case of Mongolia. KOICA-KAIST Scholarship Program. 2014
[7] Belguun Bat-erdene. An Analysis of Mongolia’s Resource-Led Development: the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment in the Extraction Industry. The University of San Francisco. 2016
[8] David Osborne, Dr Isabel Cane, Dr Mel Cousins, Dr Enkhzaya Chuluunbaatar. Integrated Report: an integrated analysis of economic, political and social issues that support or hinder growth and poverty reduction in Mongolia. 2015
[9] Pranav Gupta, Bin Grace Li, and Jiangyan Yu. From Natural Resource Boom to Sustainable Economic Growth: Lessons for Mongolia. IMF Working Paper. April 2015
 
  
 
 
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